Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

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He presented his priva上海千花坊女神会所arge Dragon stam

mps at the Chi上海千花坊女神会所na 2019 World Stamp Exhibition, which took place in Wuhan, Hubei province from June 11 to 17, und

er the patronage of the Federation Internationale de Philatelie. The eight frames include different issues an

d drafts that record the stamps’ design process, and collecting them has taken him over 20 years.

“This set of stamps is particularly difficult to find, and I believe my collection is unpar

alleled because it includes a lot of stamps known to be the only ones of their kind left in the world,” Sun says.

This is the first time that his set of Large Dragon stamps has been displayed at a world st

amp exhibition, and they won him the Large Gold Medal in the traditional philately category.

Just like Sun, other philatelists and philatelic organizations from 85 countries

and regions brought their stamp collections to exhibit and compete in the international event.

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Analysts attending the symposium said more efforts ar

 needed to tight上海会所品茶微信en export controls and establish a review mechanism that keeps track of whole processes of rare earth exports.

China, the world’s largest producer of rare earths, currently produces around 80 percent of the world’s supply of the metals.

The NDRC said in late May that China is willing to continue supplying rare

earth metals to global markets, but is opposed to those who use products made with Chi

nese rare earths to “suppress and dampen China’s development”.The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party

of China in October 2017 advocated that China would be developed into a modern socialist country that is prosp

erous, strong, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful by the middle of this century. But some in the United States c

onsider China’s resolve to develop itself into a prosperous and strong country as a matter of concern.

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tries virtual reality technology in a smart classroom prim

Use of new tec上海会所品茶微信hnologies in online education is breaking boundaries for the nation’s students

Yang Ming, a 33-year-old immobile and partially sighted man from

Chengde, Hebei province, never imagined he could become his family’s “financial adviser”.

However, in late April, he noticed trouble brewing in the financial stat

ements of a company whose stock was owned by his relatives, so he advised selling the shares.

Although they were reluctant at first, his relatives sol上海会所品茶微信d the s

hares at a slight loss, but kept most of their 4,000 yuan ($578) investment intact.

A short time later, the company’s stock went into free fall when the Shanghai Stock Exchange plunged as a result of risi

ng uncertainty over trade negotiations between China and the United States.

guapogang.cn

He returned to the exam in 2018, his fourth time to

Yao said that there is no end to learning and that he hopes to achieve a passing score this year so he can become a literature student.

He has written a number of articles on his life in retirement and in 2001 finished a 300,000-word novel.

His favorite universities are Peking University and Beijing Normal University.

For the test, Yao reviewed all subjects by himself and didn’t take any tutorial classes, saying that books are the best teacher.

He studied for about four hours a day, always during the day: “I have to d

o housework. I watch TV at night, paying attention to the current affairs,” he said.

The most difficult subject for him is mathematics. “If I can overcome math, the other subjects are much easier,” he said.

His children support him. He now lives by himself, and isn’t nervous about the ex

am. The test venue is about a kilometer away from his house, and he plans to get there by bus.

xiaovfuli.cn

Literature fest sparks rural rebootLiterature Prize anliang Li

An event set up by film director Jia Zhangke featuring leading proponents of a school of writing from Shanxi aims to place the province on China’s literary map.

Jiajiazhuang village in Fenyang, Shanxi province, sits around 600 kilometers southwest of Beijing.

Once known for its collective economy that helped draw its population out of poverty, it has now gained another label than

ks to film director Jia Zhangke, who was born in 35ang in 1970, just a short distance from the village.

Jia has devoted much of his time to regenerating the area’s cultural legacy, not only through movies, but also through literature.

To do that, Jia set up the first Lyuliang Literature Festival, which was held from May 9 to 16

www.qianpadae.com

The escalation in trade tensions between China and the

he United States, may lead to weaker business confidence and slower

global trade growth, which is expected to weigh on investment and exports in 2020. But in the n

ear term, as China shows positive surprise in GDP growth in the first quarter, and the macroeconomic policies hav

e taken effects on stabilizing the growth, the GDP growth rate is likely to stay at 6.2 percent, the report said.

“In response to the growth moderation and less favorable external conditions, the government in

troduced a fiscal stimulus emphasizing tax incentives,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Country director for China.

“While the central government has fiscal space to further increase spending, if necessary, the additional stimulus should be ap

propriately funded either directly at the central level or through additional fiscal transfers to the provinces. Highe

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No evidence was found to show Chinese monetary

 authority intervention in foreign exchange markets over the past se

veral months, according to the US Treasury’s semiannual foreign-exchange report to Congress.

The May report summarized that China’s growth appears to be stabilizing on the back of recently enhanced supportive measures.

The report expanded the number of countries it scrutinizes for curre

ncy manipulation to 21 from 12. Countries with a current account surplus with the US

equivalent to 2 percent of GDP were put on the watch list, compared with 3 percent of GDP before.

China didn’t meet the “currency manipulator” criteria listed by the US Treasury, but Washington will continue asse

ssing the RMB’s performance given China’s large trade surplus with the US, the report said.

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to see that with the right structure, we can get tons of be

Lu Yong, vice-president of Huawei Technologies Co, said China’s d

igital economy has thrived on the basis that China has built the world’s largest 4G network.

“5G is not just a faster 4G. It will fundamentally reshape how enterprises run busine

sses and overhaul a wide range of industries by using data to create more value,” Lu said.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang reiterated on Monday that China

has been holding a consistent position in trade frictions with the United States, say

ing the differences should be resolved through friendly consultations and negotiations.

Lu’s remarks came as US President Donald Trump said in Japan that the US isn’t ready to make a trade deal with Ch

ina, but he’s leaving open the possibility that the two nations could strike an agreement someday.

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When the desired train tickets are not available at the tick

et booking site and the app of the China Railway Corporation, a person can use the “waiting” function, and the system will add the wanted ticket information to a list.

One person could make an order for three tickets in the waiting list, and the function will be

free and much more efficient than other third-party software to grab tickets, according to the operator.

When ticket buyers cancel or change their tickets, the system will allocate the returned tickets to waiting buyers on the list.

To use this function, people have to pass a verification process on their status through facial recognition.

They will have to prepay the maximum price for each ticket, and once the

y have obtained the tickets, the difference from the actual fare will be refunded. If they f

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